Critical Success Factors for Sustainable Water Supply Projects in Nigeria: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/ijbes.v13.n2.1691Keywords:
water supply, sustainability, Nigeria, critical success factors, VLOM, community participation, meta-analysis, Facility ManagementAbstract
Nigeria faces significant challenges in achieving sustainable water supply, with rural areas particularly affected by low functionality rates and poor service delivery. Understanding the critical success factors (CSFs) for sustainable water supply projects is essential for improving implementation outcomes and policy effectiveness. This systematic literature review and meta-analysis aimed to: (a) identify the success factors for implementation of water supply projects in Nigeria; and (b) determine the critical success factors for implementation of water supply projects in Nigeria through quantitative synthesis and comparative analysis. A comprehensive search was conducted across multiple databases (SciSpace, Google Scholar, PubMed, ArXiv) and grey literature sources from January 2015 to September 2025. Studies were screened using predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, with data extraction focusing on success factors, challenges, and sustainability outcomes. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed to pool functionality rates, with meta-regression analysis examining factor relationships and determining criticality rankings. From 464 initial records, 141 studies were included in qualitative synthesis and 51 in quantitative meta-analysis, covering 12,847 rural handpumps and water systems. The pooled functionality rate was 52.3% (95% CI: 47.8-56.8%) with high heterogeneity (I² = 78.2%). Twenty-three success factors were identified across five domains: Technical (operation & maintenance systems, technology choice), Financial (sustainable financing, cost recovery), Institutional (clear mandates, policy frameworks), Social (community participation, local ownership), and Environmental (ecosystem protection, climate resilience). Through criticality analysis, community participation emerged as the most critical success factor, explaining 67.3% of variance in functionality outcomes (β = 8.7, p < 0.001), followed by O&M systems (mentioned in 89% of studies) and institutional mandates (92% of studies). Village-Level Operation and Maintenance (VLOM) programs showed large effect size improvements (Cohen's d = 0.89, +16.7% functionality increase). Significant geographic disparities were observed between Northern (46.1%) and Southern (58.4%) states (p = 0.031). This study identified 23 success factors for water supply implementation in Nigeria, with community participation, O&M systems, and institutional mandates determined as the three most critical factors for project success. VLOM programs demonstrate proven effectiveness and should be scaled nationally. Regional disparities necessitate differentiated policy approaches with enhanced support for northern states.
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